4 PerspectivesJuly 9, 2009

Advanced Decision Tree Analysis in Litigation: An Interview With Marc Victor, Part II

For advanced decision analysis in litigation, where do we start?  Last week we began to take our series on decision trees to the next level with Part I of our interview with Marc Victor of Litigation Risk Analysis, Inc., who pioneered the use of decision trees in dispute resolution and litigation in the 1970s.  This post is Part II of that two-part interview, in Q & A format.

Marc, people often say that the “inputs” on a decision tree — the probabilities of various outcomes — are imprecise.  One of the the comments to our first post on decision trees put it this way:

The theoretical problem is with the assignment of probabilities and their meaning. Unless you are just goofing around with numbers, the assignment of a probability to an event presupposes that there is a frequency of similar events to count. This is hardly ever true in litigation, unless restricted to something like employment dismissal cases. Even then, I have trouble interpreting the numbers as anything more than subjective probabilities, i.e. just goofing around with numbers.

Is this a fair criticism?

I don’t think so.  First, it’s not a question of probabilities being “precise” or More…

Categories: Decision Trees,Negotiation

8 PerspectivesJuly 3, 2009

Advanced Decision Tree Analysis in Litigation: An Interview With Marc Victor, Part I

A .pdf version of this advanced decision tree is available here.

Decision Tree Analysis isn’t new to litigation, and it isn’t new to this site either — we discussed the basics and more a few months ago.  But when you’re ready for an advanced take on the subject, where do you turn?  All roads lead to Marc B. Victor, Esq., who pioneered the application of decision tree analysis to litigation in the 1970s.

Through his company, Litigation Risk Analysis, Inc., Marc has taught decision tree analysis in the litigation context to over 10,000 senior legal professionals, some of whom no doubt had a hand in the American College of Civil Trial Mediators awarding Marc their Education Award of Excellence in 2003.  Marc was kind enough to guide me a bit when we began our series on decision trees a few months ago, and I have wanted to flesh out some of the details with him since those initial discussions.  The Q&A below is the result of our recent follow-up interview.

How did you first put together litigation management and the decision tree concept?

It was truly fortuitous.  I was a joint JD/MBA student at Stanford in the mid-1970s and had a summer job for a company bringing an antitrust suit against IBM.  I happened to have lunch with one of our lawyers the same day the president had asked him if $10 million would be a reasonable settlement.  As our lawyer walked me through what might happen if we went to trial — “if More…

Categories: Decision Trees,Negotiation,Settlement

1 PerspectiveJune 18, 2009

When Not To Negotiate: My Tree, My Neighbor’s House

How do you negotiate with your neighbor as your tree sits on his roof? The subject line only read “Tree Down,” but I began to wonder. The irony wasn’t lost on me as I scanned the rest of the message.  A storm, our tree, our neighbor’s house, and a scramble to respond — all as I sat in a seminar on advanced dispute resolution techniques two time zones away. I was soon reminded of a valuable lesson in negotiation that most people never get: Do you even negotiate at all?

What’s Your First Move?

I have cited all manner of negotiation textbooks on this site, from Getting to Yes to Start with No and beyond — but if your answer to the question “What’s your first move?” was anything other than “Get the tree off his house,” take a deep More…

Categories: Communication,Fundamentals,Negotiation

4 PerspectivesFebruary 21, 2009

Negotiating a Debt Restructuring: The Out of Office AutoReply

As I write this I’m on yet another plane ride, but this one’s different. I’m flying home following some of the most intense, important negotiations I’ll ever be a part of. This isn’t a post about the details of our negotiations, since it’ll never be appropriate to write about most of those. Today I write simply to ask for your patience, because I won’t be posting much for the next month or two.

The Plan and the Filing

In case you haven’t heard, my company, BearingPoint, Inc., reached an agreement in principle with its senior secured lenders to restructure the Company’s debt on Wednesday. The Company’s press release with further details can be found here and the Wall Street Journal’s coverage of the story can be found here, but the high points are: More…

Categories: Fundamentals,Miscellaneous,Negotiation